That may sound like a strange - even bizarre - question to ask. But, stay with me. There's absolutely no doubt that something very strange happened on the Foster Ranch, Lincoln County, New Mexico in the summer of 1947. There is intriguing witness testimony which supports the idea that people were warned not to talk about what they knew - as in ever. There were, allegedly, death threats made too. Tales even exist of people being murdered to prevent the truth of Roswell from surfacing outside of the secret world of government. But, that was then - seventy years ago. What about now? That's the important question. It's a question which gets to the heart of the title of this article.
Whenever elements of the U.S. Government, such as the GAO (the Government Accountability Office) or the Air Force have anything to say about Roswell, Ufologists typically scream "Lies!" "Disinformation!" I saw this, and still remember it, when back in the 1990s the Air Force published its reports on Roswell. One surfaced in 1994 and was soon followed by a massive report in excess of 1,000 pages in length. The Air Force concluded that, most likely, what came down on the Foster Ranch was a huge "Mogul" balloon array, designed to monitor for early Soviet atomic bomb tests. Then, in July 1997 - which was the 50th anniversary of Roswell - the Air Force published another report on Roswell. This one was on the controversial matter of the bodies found at Roswell - which the Air Force suggested were probably crash-test dummies. Ufology was in a state of uproar, pointing figures at what it considered to be a bunch of liars. But, those same ufologists were wrong.
I don't think that a Mogul balloon came down on the ranch - at all. Nor do I think that the bodies were mere dummies. But, I don't think the government/Air Force lied. I think they genuinely went looking for answers, but couldn't find anything solid, and - as a result - came up with what they truly considered to be a viable answer. Or answers. I am of the opinion that when, in the 1990s, the Air Force and the GAO came out with their reports on Roswell, they had less answers than did Ufology.
Within Ufology there is an (almost required) assumption that if what the government states about UFOs doesn't accord with what Ufology wants to hear, then it must be a lie. Not so. A careful and close read of the combined Roswell reports of the USAF and the GAO makes it very clear that officialdom's theories were simply that: theories. The Air Force openly admitted there was no definitive proof that dummies or Mogul balloons were the cause of all the fuss. The Air Force admitted that crash-test dummies were not used in the area until the early 1950s. Their theory was that the witnesses to the dummies got the years wrong, confusing the fifties with 1947. The Air Force also admitted that while it found thousands of pages of documents on Mogul - and in numerous military archives - not a single such document confirmed that it was a Mogul balloon that came down in Lincoln County.
In my view, if the USAF was lying, we would have seen a far more robust, well-constructed cover-story that addressed every avenue and plugged every hole. But, the reports do not do that. Instead, they show that the USAF tried to come up with what they thought were probably the answers, but couldn't prove it. Then, there's the matter of one of the key military/intelligence figures in Roswell: Sheridan Cavitt. Certainly someone who knew exactly what happened at Roswell, he took the truth to the grave with him. When, in the early 1990s, the Air Force was busily trying to figure out what the hell happened at Roswell, Cavitt was still alive. The Air Force contacted him and plans were made for a face-to-face interview. It happened in May 1994, in Cavitt's own home.
The Air Force told Cavitt that, in their minds, the Roswell debris was very likely from a vast Mogul array - which might have explained the huge debris field found on the Foster Ranch. Cavitt, though, was having none of it. He firmly told the Air Force that what he saw and handled was a regular, tiny weather-balloon and nothing else. End of story. This caused the Air Force some big problems: they were pretty sure that Mogul was the answer. But, the one still-living man that just about everyone in the know said was on-site back in forty-seven was denying the Mogul scenario. As I see it, had the Air Force been engaged in conspiracy and lies - and knew what happened at Roswell - they would have had Cavitt on-board to help uphold and bolster their theory. After all, Cavitt was there. He saw what it was that came down. And he knew the truth. But, he chose to direct the Air Force to nothing stranger than a weather-balloon. For me, this is evidence that the USAF was genuinely looking for answers, but their primary guy (who they had their hopes on) was skillfully steering them away from what he knew - and doing so with something as simple as a weather-balloon. Cavitt knew the truth. The Air Force didn't know the truth. And that's just how Cavitt wanted it. Whether Cavitt was acting alone, or some deeply hidden cabal ordered him to try and keep the Air Force away from the truth, is an issue that still requires an answer.
All of this leads me to believe that neither the GAO nor the USAF knew the truth of Roswell. I'm sure that is still the case, today. But, how could that be? How could there be so many books written on Roswell, but the Air Force can't find any solid data? Well, if aliens crashed (which I don't believe) then it's not impossible that over the years and decades the truth has been buried so deeply that not even elected officials and high-ranking members of the military can get close to the truth.
There is another possible scenario too; a theory which I think is far more likely. My recent book, The Roswell UFO Conspiracy, suggests that Roswell was a dark and disturbing example of "human experimentation," which was born out of the likes of the controversial Operation Paperclip. It's entirely possible - as several sources told me - that all of the incriminating data and files were destroyed decades ago, chiefly to protect the guilty parties who crossed the line in big-time fashion.
This latter possibility may provide a viable reason why the government knows less than we do: if the files are all gone - relegated to the furnace - then, today, there is nothing to find. That may explain why such a monumental event has seemingly vanished off the face of the Earth. The result? The military came up with Mogul balloons and crash-test dummies; honest attempts to find the truth of an event that has been completely eradicated - apart from in the depths of old, fading memories of even older people. So, yes, the chances are that we, the UFO research community, really do know more than the government itself knows about Roswell. Of course, the same community doesn't want to hear that all of the Roswell material is long gone: burned and shredded. They don't want to hear that because it implies that finding the truth may be completely impossible. Which is very probably the case.
Just because the Air Force published reports concluding that down-to-earth things caused all the monumental fuss, doesn't mean they lied. It means they failed to solve something which is very possibly now unsolvable. Why? Because there is nothing left to find, that's why. And there was nothing left to find when all the controversy about balloons and dummies was afoot back in the nineties.